The World Cement Association (WCA) has published a landmark white paper authored by its chief executive officer, Ian Riley, analyzing the long-term outlook for global cement and clinker demand. The report challenges prevailing forecasts, projecting a significant decline in demand for cement by 2050 and offering actionable insights for industry stakeholders navigating the transition to a low-carbon future.
Titled “Long-Term Forecast for Cement and Clinker Demand”, the white paper highlights pivotal changes driven by decarbonization technological advancements, and market dynamics. key findings include:
- Global cement demand is likely to decline to 3 billion tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2050, far below existing forecasts.
- Clinker demand, the main source of CO2 emissions in cement production, is expected to decrease even more steeply, reaching 1.5 billion tpa by 2050.
- The need for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will consequently be reduced, impacting investment and policy priorities.
“The cement industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation. As we move towards a decarbonized future, understanding the true demand for cement and clinker is critical to ensuring that policies, technologies, and investments align with reality. This white paper aims to provide industry leaders and policymakers with the clarity needed to plan effectively and sustainably”, explains Ian Riley, chief executive officer of the World Cement Association and author of the report.
The report also examines disruptive factors such as alternative materials, supply chain optimization, and clinker-free technologies, which are reshaping demand patterns. By outlining three potential scenarios, it helps to provide a roadmap for stakeholders.
Published March 2025
