Global copper markets are showing signs of stronger demand and tighter primary supply, conditions that could provide continued support for recycled copper and copper scrap markets, according to preliminary data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
ICSG recently released preliminary data on the world copper supply and demand in its September 2026 Copper Bulletin.
World copper mine production declined 1 percent during the first 7 months of 2026, with concentrate production down 2 percent. The decline was only partially offset by a 3.6 percent increase in solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) production.
Production challenges in several major mining regions contributed to the decline. Chilean mine production fell 7 percent, while Indonesian concentrate production dropped 29 percent. Production in the Democratic Republic of Congo remained essentially unchanged as higher SX-EW output was offset by lower concentrate production.
At the same time, secondary refined copper production from scrap increased 4.3 percent globally, significantly outpacing the 1 percent growth in primary refined production. The increase highlights the growing role of recycled material in meeting copper demand as mining output faces production constraints.
Global refined copper production rose approximately 1.7 percent during the first 7 months of the year, while apparent refined copper usage increased 2.4 percent. Demand in China, the world’s largest copper consumer, increased an estimated 3.5 percent, while consumption outside China rose about 1 percent.
China currently accounts for approximately 59 percent of global refined copper usage. Despite the increase in demand, Chinese net refined copper imports declined 10 percent, adding to the importance of domestic supply sources, including recycled copper.
The global refined copper market recorded a preliminary surplus of approximately 32,000 metric tons during the first seven months of 2026. That was substantially smaller than the 157,000 ton surplus recorded during the same period in 2025. When estimated changes in Chinese bonded inventories are taken into account, the market showed a deficit of approximately 5,000 tons.
For recyclers, the combination of declining mine production, rising copper consumption and faster growth in secondary refined production points to an increasingly important role for scrap in balancing the market. Recycled copper can provide manufacturers with an additional source of supply without relying solely on new mining output.
Copper inventories also remained elevated. Stocks at the LME, COMEX and SHFE totaled nearly 1 million metric tons at the end of August, a 34 percent increase from the end of 2025 and the highest combined level since June 2003.
Copper prices, meanwhile, remained strong. The August average LME cash price was $14,353.40 per metric ton, up 6 percent from July. The 2026 year-to-date average through September 22 was $13,395.27 per ton, approximately 35 percent higher than the 2025 annual average.
The combination of strong prices and growing demand could create favorable conditions for copper recyclers, particularly as manufacturers and refiners look to secondary material to supplement constrained primary supply.
The ICSG data remains preliminary and is subject to revision as additional production, consumption and inventory information becomes available. Nevertheless, the figures point to a copper market in which recycling is playing an increasingly important role in meeting global demand.
Published October 2026
