The World Steel Association (worldsteel) released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) steel demand forecast for 2026 and 2027. Worldsteel forecasts that global demand will grow by 0.3 percent in 2026 to reach 1,724 Mt, followed by an accelerated growth of 2.2 percent in 2027 to reach 1,762 Mt.
Commenting on the outlook, Alfonso Hidalgo Calcerrada, chief economist, UNESID, and chair of the worldsteel economics committee, said, “Our latest forecasts validate the trajectory established in our October 2025 SRO, confirming that global steel demand is bottoming out over the 2025-2026 period. This follows a protracted and challenging phase of global structural adjustments that has suppressed demand since 2022.
We are now transitioning to a path of modest growth in 2026, with a more pronounced acceleration projected for 2027. This broader recovery is being driven by distinct shifts in regional dynamics. In China the rate of demand contraction is finally decelerating in 2026, while demand growth across key developing markets, most notably India, remains vibrant.
However, we expect the ongoing conflict in the Middle East to result in a sharp drop in that region’s steel demand for 2026, which was otherwise positioned for strong growth.
Critically, we anticipate a meaningful turnaround in the developed world as a whole. After a protracted period of decline, we expect to see all major developed economies, including the European Union, the U.S., Canada, Japan and Korea, posting positive growth in 2027.
Consequently, global steel demand excluding China is forecast to accelerate to a growth rate of 4.0 percent in 2027 – a level that has rarely been seen in recent times. While this outlook reflects data available as of mid-March 2026, the escalating conflict in the Middle East presents a significant stress test.
Our central assumption remains a resolution by June; under this timeline, we expect steel demand in most major economies to remain resilient.
Specifically, the U.S., China and India appear largely insulated from direct spillovers. Furthermore, despite its high exposure, the EU has bolstered its systemic energy flexibility since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine crisis. The sharp divergence between the gas price peak in 2022 and current price levels illustrates a much more contained impact thus far.
Nevertheless, should hostilities persist beyond the second quarter, material downward revisions will be necessary, particularly for regions with high structural energy sensitivity.
We expect that the contraction in Chinese steel demand will narrow to -1.5 percent in 2026, as the housing market correction nears its bottom. Infrastructure investments in the country are expected to edge up this year, supported by local government efforts to maintain moderately strong GDP growth.
We anticipate that manufacturing sectors’ steel demand will maintain moderate growth as exports continue to expand. However, a tougher global trade environment remains a significant downside risk, potentially slowing steel demand from the manufacturing sector in the coming years.
For 2027, we project Chinese steel demand to remain essentially flat relative to 2026 levels. This outlook is grounded in the expectation that the protracted real estate sector correction will have largely run its course by 2027, mitigating the severe downward pressure that has dominated the industry since 2021.
As the structural realignment of the property market stabilizes, we anticipate that Chinese steel demand may transition into a period of cyclical stability.”
In October of last year worldsteel forecast a 2.0 percent contraction in Chinese steel demand for 2025. The now published official figure for China is a 7.1 percent contraction. Circumstantial evidence points to a more moderate decline.
Steel demand growth across developing economies excluding China is projected to moderate to a 2.5 percent pace in 2026, a significant deceleration from the roughly 5 percent annual growth recorded in recent years.
This cooling is primarily driven by a sharp contraction in the Middle East, where regional conflict has abruptly reversed previous growth expectations.
Steel demand in the United States is projected to grow by 1.7 percent in 2026 and 2.0 percent in 2027. This expansion is expected to be supported by strong, technology-driven and policy-backed private sector investment, along with continued public infrastructure spending.
Worldsteel anticipates a healthy recovery in the residential construction sector, driven by significant pent-up demand and gradually easing financing conditions.
However, the pace of this rebound is likely to remain constrained by persistent structural challenges, including elevated material costs, high mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and ongoing labor shortages. Additionally, demand for durable goods may be tempered amid a softening labor market.
Published April 2026
